Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Picture & Final Predictions

Best Picture
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

I'm gonna do this a little different and just comment in the middle of my ballot. As with all of my ballots they are ranked from best to not.

My Ballot:
Boyhood
My favorite director gets together with my favorite actor to make a movie that has never been attempted that actually works. I. Love. This. Movie.

Selma
Most movies like this tend to attempt to preach by painting with broad strokes about the entire civil rights movement, but Ava Duvernay takes one snippet of the movement and gives it the epic attention it deserves. This allows the performances to shine brighter, and the message to gain a sense of immediacy and timelessness that is hard to avoid.

The Imitation Game
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
This group of films represents why I truly believe we remain in the golden age of American cinema. So many brave, unique, and brilliantly entertaining films are made each year. I consider us all lucky.

American Sniper
My thoughts on this film depend on what it wants to be:
-A War Hawk film- judging by the box office and the groups that have embraced this film, I would say it has succeeded. Unfortunately, a film to fire up the zeal of the American people towards our military is something we simply do not need.
-An Anti-War film- if this was what Eastwood intended, he failed miserably.
-A Veterans-Awareness film- I like to think this is what the film is, but once again, it has missed the mark. Why build up the larger-than-life superhero Chris Kyle character created by Kyle's book and fan-base instead of focusing more on the real struggles on the homefront? Why omit the fact that Kyle was drinking at the gun range with his assailant when he was killed? Why reduce Kyle's family to weeping cardboard-cutout stereotypes? If Eastwood was trying to make this kind of film, why didn't he try to emulate The Deer Hunter or Born on the Fourth of July instead of Rambo?
As you can see, whatever this movie wanted to be..... I wasn't a fan.

My Pick to Win:
Birdman

Shamefully Snubbed:
Interstellar

RECAP!!!  Here are my final predictions:
Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Richard Linklater
Best Actor: Michael Keaton - Birdman
Best Actress: Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Best Supp. Actor: J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Best Supp. Actress: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Original Screenplay: Birdman
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Editing: Boyhood
Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song: "Glory" - Selma
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Sound Editing: Interstellar
Best Sound Mixing: Interstellar
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Animated Film: Big Hero 6
Best Documentary: CITIZENFOUR
Best Foreign Film: Ida

Be sure to keep score tonight!!!  My hopes are pretty low for my picks this year, I fully expect surprises galore!!!

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Actress

Best Actress
Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild

In my quest to see every nominated film, this category seems to be my Kryptonite. I talked myself out of driving to Raleigh last week to see Still Alice, and I'm still not entirely sure that Two Days, One Night actually exists. Otherwise, this was a pretty weak year for leading female roles. Julianne Moore will finally take home an Oscar, which is nice, since she is about 17 years or so overdue (see Boogie Nights, Far from Heaven, or The Hours).

My Ballot:
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl

My Pick to Win:
Julianne Moore - Still Alice

Shamefully Snubbed:
Jenny Slate - Obvious Child

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall - The Judge
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Edward Norton - Birdman
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash

Certainly this is the easiest category to predict. J.K. Simmons has had his name engraved on the statue since this movie premiered at Sundance more than a year ago. As for the other nominees, Norton and Hawke could've easily accepted their first Oscars if it had been any other year as they both turned in arguably the best performances of their careers. Robert Duvall was the best thing about a pretty bland courtroom drama that feels like it should've been made in 1993. I have no explanation for the Ruffalo nomination except that the voters thought they were voting for Channing Tatum (who, I believe, had the only worthwhile performance of the pretty boring Foxcatcher).

My Ballot:
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Edward Norton - Birdman
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Robert Duvall - The Judge
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher

My Pick to Win:
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash

Shamefully Snubbed:
Keith Stanfield - Selma

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay:
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler

Four excellent screenplays and one stinker. I guess I just didn't "get" Foxcatcher. Everything great about that film was from the performances and source material, the screenplay certainly didn't do much. The others are perfect, but I wish that one slot could've gone to, oh, I don't know, Chef, Top Five, Mr. Turner, The Guest, The One I Love, Dear White People, Interstellar, or one of the hundred or so other better screenplays from 2014....

My Ballot:
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Foxcatcher

My Pick to Win:
Birdman

Shamefully Snubbed:
Chef

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Animated Feature

Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Unfortunately I didn't get a chance to see Song of the Sea (I challenge anyone else to find a way to watch it too) or Princess Kaguya (Brian offered to let me borrow it, but I just couldn't find the time). The other three nominations are outstanding. The "Pixar" effect has definitely bled over to the entire animation community with a continual stream of "kids" films that stand up to pretty much everything made for the adult audience. The only caveat here is the completely ridiculous snub of The Lego Movie. I was puzzled at first with its omission... maybe the voters forgot it was in 2014 (it was released more than a year ago) or maybe they thought that Lego characters were real and it should be in the documentary category???

My Ballot:
Big Hero 6
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Boxtrolls

My Pick to Win:
Big Hero 6

Shamefully Snubbed:
The Lego Movie

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Costume Design

Best Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Maleficent

I don't really see anything other than Grand Budapest having a chance here. The rest of the nominees are fine but nothing even approaches the originality from Wes Anderson and company. It would've been nice to see Woody Allen's adorable period piece Magic in the Moonlight get some love here.

My Ballot:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
Into the Woods
Inherent Vice
Maleficent

My Pick to Win:
The Grand Budapest Hotel

Shamefully Snubbed:
Magic in the Moonlight

Countdown to Oscar Night: Spirit Award Bonus Round!

Probably my favorite awards show (PS: don't tell Oscar). It airs live (and uncensored) at 5pm on IFC this afternoon (2/21). These guys tend to get it right more often than not, and list the little known movies that you should see if you missed. As with all my ballots, only the films I watched are listed in my votes. Full list of nominations here.

Best Picture:
Boyhood
Selma
Birdman
Whiplash
Love is Strange

Best First Feature:
Obvious Child
Nightcrawler

John Cassavetes Award:
Blue Ruin
Test

Best Director:
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Alejandro G. Inarritu - Birdman
Ava Duvernay - Selma
Damien Chazelle - Whiplash

Best Screenplay:
Nightcrawler
Love is Strange
Only Lovers Left Alive

Best First Screenplay:
The One I Love

Best Cinematography:
Birdman
Selma

Best Editing:
Boyhood
Whiplash
Nightcrawler
The Guest

Best Male Lead:
Michael Keaton - Birdman
David Oyelowo - Selma
Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler
John Lithgow - Love is Strange

Best Female Lead:
Jenny Slate - Obvious Child
Tilda Swinton - Only Lovers Left Alive

Best Supporting Male:
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Edward Norton - Birdman
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Alfred Molina - Love is Strange
Riz Ahmed - Nightcrawler

Best Supporting Female:
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Carmen Ejogo - Selma
Emma Stone - Birdman

Best International Film:
Under the Skin
Ida

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Director

Best Director
Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro G. Innaritu - Birdman
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game

Just like Best Picture, this is a two movie race pitting the huge scope of Boyhood against the inventive originality of Birdman. Two weeks ago, I would've called both these races for Linklater, but the buzz that matters has shifted sharply towards Innaritu. Both are fine films, and deserve to be recognized so I think the Academy will split their vote. Not really sure which way, but I think I'm gonna hedge my bets and just pick Boyhood (who I'll be rooting for anyway) for both awards. The real tragedy is that Ava DuVernay was snubbed here for her brilliant work on Selma. The members of the Academy missed a beautiful opportunity to make a statement that film-making is NOT just a white-boys club. (note-I realize Alejandro Innaritu isn't necessarily "white", but you know what I mean)

My Ballot:
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Alejandro G. Innaritu - Birdman
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game
Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel
Bennett Miller - Foxcatcher

My Pick to Win:
Richard Linklater - Boyhood

Shamefully Snubbed:
Ava DuVernay - Selma

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Score

Best Original Score
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything

A pretty good crop of forgettable scores here...  Ho hum...  I think maybe the "original" part of this category scared voters away from the best score of the year (How to Train Your Dragon 2) even though it was eligible. Hawking's biopic has been winning everywhere else, so I don't really expect any surprise here, although it would be pretty cool to give Hans Zimmer a career achievement award for his work on Interstellar. 

My Ballot:
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner

My Pick to Win:
The Theory of Everything

Shamefully Snubbed:
How to Train Your Dragon 2

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Cinematography

Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken

Another year, another nomination for best cinematography for Roger Deakins, another sad trip home for the greatest cinematographer of the twenty-first century. This year it is because he is attached to the wholly underwhelming Unbroken. The film looks fine, but just feels like it is missing something from opening titles to closing credits (I wish I could really say what...). Mr. Turner is as beautiful as its subjects paintings, but an incredible bore, and Ida is a black and white picture wound up, put into motion with a bit of drunk driving and nun corruption thrown in (that actually made it sound good; spoiler alert: it isn't). That leaves the two real contenders Birdman and Grand Budapest. I think Wes Anderson will do well in these "under the radar" categories, but for some reason, I think Birdman takes this one, maybe as a makeup call for getting "snubbed in editing.

My Ballot:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Birdman
Unbroken
Mr. Tuner
Ida

My Pick to Win:
Birdman

Shamefully Snubbed:
Wild

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Production Design

Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Thirty years from now, when film classes turn their textbook to the production design chapter the pages will be dominated by pictures from Wes Anderson's films. Every particle is delicately placed in every shot so that the films feel like high art.

My Ballot:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
The Imitation Game

My Pick to Win:
The Grand Budapest Hotel

Shamefully Snubbed:
Guardians of the Galaxy

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Actor

Best Actor
Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper - American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton - Birdman
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

In an otherwise lackluster year for movies, 2014 certainly had its share of "once-in-a-lifetime" leading roles. Save for Bradley Cooper, it is quite likely that each nominated actor displayed their career-defining performances this year. Michael Keaton will most likely win for a few reasons: he has been nailing acceptance speeches at every awards show this season (and the Academy loves that); he is the single veteran actor in a field of young whippersnappers (even Carell is relatively new to big-time acting); and his was the only performance that was more than an impression of a real-life person. Not taking anything away from those "impressions" (Redmayne and Cumberbatch's were jaw-dropping), but Keaton's performance was transformative in a way that sucked the viewer into the otherwise confusing and meandering prose of Birdman. Finally, it is a travesty that David Oyelowo's performance as Dr. Martin Luther King in Selma didn't make the cut. It isn't like their wasn't room either, Carell's performance was impressive but boring, and Bradley Cooper simply bulked up and talked like a Texan.

My Ballot:
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Michael Keaton - Birdman
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper - American Sniper

My Pick to Win:
Michael Keaton - Birdman

Shamefully Snubbed:
David Oyelowo - Selma

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Sound

Best Sound Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

Sound editing rewards mainly the creation of new or nonexistent sounds for a film. I'm pretty sure Interstellar will sweep these technical categories, but who knows?  No reason for American Sniper or Unbroken to be nominated in these categories. If you replaced the names Clint Eastwood and Angelina Jolie on their posters, these would've certainly been forgotten come Oscar time.

My Ballot:
Interstellar
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of Five Armies
Unbroken
American Sniper

My Pick to Win:
Interstellar

Shamefully Snubbed:
Earth to Echo



Best Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash

Sound mixing refers to correcting or enhancing the levels of the sounds in the movie. Once again, I expect Interstellar to prevail here, but I would be a little less surprised to see a Birdman upset in this category. Whiplash was certainly a welcome surprise, but the exclusion of the meticulous mixing that went on in Into the Woods is simply inexcusable.

My Ballot:
Whiplash
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
American Sniper

My Pick to Win:
Interstellar

Shamefully Snubbed:
Into the Woods

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Laura Dern - Wild
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Emma Stone - Birdman
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods

This is one of the very few stone cold locks we have for Oscar night. This little bald man already has a place reserved on Ms. Arquette's mantle. In Boyhood, Ellar Coltraine is the subject, Ethan Hawke is the heart, but Patricia Arquette is the film's center. The movie rests on her ability to sell the emotional roller-coaster that her little family goes through over twelve years. Her performance had to be consistent, empathetic, and, most of all, believable, and she nailed it. As for the other performances here, I truly feel Emma Stone's is the only other one worthy of a nomination. Knightley was overshadowed by the jaw-dropping performance from Benedict Cumberbatch, Laura Dern didn't really have to do much in Wild (with her story told entirely in flashbacks), and Meryl Streep was simply the worst part of Into the Woods (Emily Blunt and Tracey Ullman were both more deserving of supporting recognition from the film).

My Ballot:
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Emma Stone - Birdman
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Laura Dern - Wild
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods

My Pick to Win:
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood

Shamefully Snubbed:
Imelda Staunton - Pride

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Visual Effects

Best Visual Effects
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past

This is a tough category.  All of the films have great visual effects, none of them have "Life of Pi"- style effects (you know, the ones that are obviously special effects), and all of them (except X-Men) are very good films on their own. Unfortunately, I missed Interstellar in the theater, so I don't really feel qualified to comment on its effects since my computer screen leaves a little to be desired. Still, this is the safest pick for the Academy because they usually shy away from sequels and superheroes in this category.

My Ballot:
Guardians of the Galaxy
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Interstellar
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
X-Men: Days of Future Past

My Pick to Win:
Interstellar

Shamefully Snubbed:
The Signal

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Song

Best Original Song
"Everything is Awesome" - The Lego Movie
"Glory" - Selma
"Grateful" - Beyond the Lights
"I'm Not Gonna Miss You" - Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
"Lost Stars" - Begin Again

As beautifully touching as Glen Campbell's song is, this is a two horse race between the otherwise ultra-snubbed Lego Movie's song and the otherwise ultra-snubbed Selma's song. Pretty sure this is Common's Oscar for three reasons: 1. The Academy wants some color on stage after being reamed for the past month over snubbing the actors and director of Selma 2. Even though it is a "credits song" it is integral to the flow of the film (the audience I watched the film with stayed throughout the credits), and performed by an actor from the film (Common portrayed Selma activist James Bevel) AND 3. It's simply the best song of the five.

My Ballot:
"Glory" - Selma
"I'm Not Gonna Miss You" - Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
"Everything is Awesome" - The Lego Movie
" Lost Stars" - Begin Again
"Grateful" - Beyond the Lights

My Pick to Win:
"Glory" - Selma

Shamefully Snubbed:
"The Hanging Tree" - The Hunger Games: Mockingjay: Part 1

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

It was pretty shocking that both Gone Girl and Wild (popular novels that got turned into critically acclaimed films) were snubbed here. This is especially true when you consider the inclusion of American Sniper (which with all its appeal, screenwriting certainly isn't its forte'), Inherent Vice (a nonsensical mess that almost no one has really seen, and even less claim to understand), and Whiplash (a last minute addition to this category as it was deemed "adapted" from the director's previous attempt to make the film....). That leaves the two British biopics. Both driven by young actors turning in career-making performances, neither of these films would surprise me with a victory on Oscar night. Alan Turing's tale was a bit less "by-the-numbers" than Hawking's so I'm leaning that Cumberbatch and company will take this one.

My Ballot:
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
The Theory of Everything
Inherent Vice
American Sniper

My Pick to Win:
The Imitation Game

Shamefully Snubbed:
Wild

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy

Three very deserving nominees.  Foxcatcher's makeup team transformed Steve Carell into John DuPont. The hairstylists of Grand Budapest were completely original with their designs in a way that kept up with Wes Anderson's whimsical masterpiece. Still, they don't really come close to the overwhelming job done by those working on (with apologies to The Avengers) the best comic book movie of all time. In a day where movie-makers simply throw CGI at a problem, James Gunn and company used the perfect mix of digital (Rocket) and real characters. Compare the realism of Gamora and Drax to the disconnect felt with characters like the Na'vi aliens in avatar or (heaven forbid) Jar-Jar Binks.  Unfortunately, I think the Academy is gonna fill up the GB Hotel with awards in the technical categories, so I think they win here.  I wouldn't really be disappointed if any of these films went home with the Oscar, but it's pretty clear who deserves it.

My Ballot:
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher

My Pick to Win:
The Grand Budapest Hotel

Shamefully Snubbed:
The Theory of Everything

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Film Editing

Over the next 19 days I will breakdown 19 of the 24 Oscar categories as we prepare for the big night on February 22nd.  I am not handicapping the documentary category this year because I don't have the ability to see ANY of them, which stinks.  The foreign language category is also being left behind as I have only seen one of the five films.  The other three categories are the "shorts" categories which I truly believe should either be revamped with some kind of youtube release or eliminated because I always want to see the films but simply cannot.  I am only ten films short of seeing every other nominated film so I may actually be able to pull it off this year!  Here we go:

Best Film Editing
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

I found the nominees very puzzling here as I feel only two of the five films are even worthy of mentioning for their editing alone (Boyhood & Whiplash).  There isn't much I DID like about American Sniper, Wes Anderson's magnum opus (Grand Budapest) relies on production, writing, and acting instead of slick editing, and The Imitation Game's editing was nearly bad enough to be distracting from its awe-inspiring story and performances.  How Birdman got left out here blows my mind. As much as I love Boyhood, I feel Inarritu's cinematic experiment was much more dependent on the work of its editor, and may have been the best pure editing in any film in years.  Oh well....

In each category I will cast my ballot (ranking from favorite to least), make my pick to win, and list a notable snub:
My Ballot:
Boyhood
Whiplash
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
American Sniper

My Pick to Win:
Boyhood

Shamefully Snubbed:
Birdman