Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Picture

Nominees:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I'll have more to say about most of these when I make my top ten list for 2012 sometime over the next week or so.  As for now, I'll just say, for me, none of these come close to the greatness of "Beasts of the Southern Wild".  Argo will most likely win, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see a last second upset from Lincoln or even Silver Linings Playbook.

My Ballot:
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty

My Pick to Win:
Argo

Shoulda Been Here:
The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Actor

Nominees:
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight

This is actually a really close decision for me.  Daniel Day-Lewis gives one of the top ten method acting performances in history, and Hugh Jackman gives one of the top ten musical performances in history.  The Academy will not have it quite as close though, as Day-Lewis' flight into Oscar history (first man to win three best actor trophies) is pretty much a foregone conclusion.

My Ballot:
Hugh Jackman -Les Miserables
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Denzel Washington - Flight
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook

My Pick to Win:
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

Shoulda Been Here:
Jack Black - Bernie

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Actress

Nominees:
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Quvenzhane Wallis was 6 years old when she filmed Beasts. Six. Years. Old.  And she owned it.  She was the best part about the best movie of 2012.  Jennifer Lawrence or Emmanuelle Riva will win, but little Miss Wallis deserves all of the prace.

My Ballot:
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chaistain - Zero Dark Thirty

My Pick to Win:
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook

Shoulda Been Here:
Zoe Kazan - Ruby Sparks

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Director

Nominees:
Michael Haneke - Amour
Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook

It's been almost twenty-five years since a movie won Best Picture at the Academy Awards without having its director at least nominated.  I'm pretty sure it's gonna happen this year though, which means that this is yet another toss-up category.  I don't think Zeitlin and Haneke have much of a chance because they were seen as the "spoiler" nominees for the more famous Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow.  With all of the acting love, David O. Russell isn't getting much of the love for Silver Linings, which leaves the two directing titans: Ang Lee and Steven Spielberg.  I'm pretty sure the Academy will lean toward Spielberg because of Lincoln's former "front-runner" status, but that's just a hunch.

My Ballot:
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee - Life of Pi

My Pick to Win:
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

Should Been Here:
Ben Affleck - Argo.....  obviously........

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:
Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

From a "picking the winner" viewpoint, I think this is the most wide open I have EVER seen a major category at the Academy Awards.  I truly would not be surprised to hear any of the five actors called tomorrow night.  As for me, though, I don't think it should really be this close.  Tommy Lee Jones gives a performance that not only caps an amazing career, but also manages to get noticed in a film that has arguably the best lead acting job in a decade.  His Thaddeus Stevens may not compare to the ultimate transformation that is Day-Lewis' Lincoln, but the supporting role is what drives the heart of the film.

My Ballot:
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

My Pick to Win:
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook

Shoulda Been Here:
Sam Rockwell - Seven Psychopaths

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:
Amy Adams - The Master
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook

It completely breaks my heart that I have yet to see The Master or The Sessions.  I adore Paul Thomas Anderson (Magnolia, Boogie Nights, etc.) so I'm really looking forward to The Master, and from what I've read Helen Hunt and John Hawkes put on an acting clinic with a super-interesting story in The Sessions.  From what I have seen, though, nothing comes close to the three minute scene pictured above.  So much passion, pain, and raw beauty in one simple, no-frills camera shot.  I don't see how Ms. Hathaway loses.

My Ballot:
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Sally Field - Lincoln
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook

My Pick to Win:
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

Shoulda Been Here:
Emma Watson - The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Spirit Awards Ballot

The Independent Spirit Awards are presented tonight at 10pm on IFC.  Even though the Oscars are quite a bit more prestigious, the Spirits usually are the ones that actually "get it right".  I haven't seen quite as many of the nominated films this year, but here are my rankings of those I have seen (from best to worst obviously).

Best Feature
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Bernie
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Keep the Lights On

Best Female Lead
Quvenzhane' Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Linda Cardellini - Return

Best Male Lead
Jack Black - Bernie
Matthew McConaughey - Killer Joe
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Thure Lindhart - Keep the Lights On

Best Supporting Female
Brit Marling - BeSound of My Voice
Rosemarie Dewitt - Your Sister's Sister

Best Supporting Male
Sam Rockwell - Seven Psychopaths
Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike
Bruce Willis - Moonrise Kingdom

Best Director
Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Wes Anderson - Moonrise Kingdom
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs - Keep the Lights On

Best Screenplay
Ruby Sparks
Moonrise Kingdom
Seven Psychopaths
Silver Linings Playbook
Keep the Lights On

Best First Screenplay
Gayby
Robot & Frank

Best Cinematography
Moonrise Kingdom
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best First Feature
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Sound of My Voice

Best Documentary
Marina Abramovic: The Artist is Present
The Invisible War

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook

All the experts are calling this for Argo (as part of its best picture sweep), but I simply cannot believe they could ignore Tony Kushner's masterpiece of a script.  Most people's complaints about Lincoln is that it is just talking.  That was the reason I loved it.  The dialogue is absolutely captivating.  It successfully immerses the viewer in the political drama while never ceasing to entertain with witticisms and powerful diatribes.  It's still a shame the voters ignored Cloud Atlas here once again.  The simple act of turning that behemoth of a book into a film is award-worthy.

My Ballot:
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi

My Pick to Win:
Lincoln

Shoulda Been Here:
Cloud Atlas

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

I know, I really need to see Amour.  It's totally sitting on my computers hard drive.  It doesn't get much more diverse than this category.  As much as I would love to see Moonrise Kingdom take home an Oscar, I think this is a two horse race between Academy-darling Tarantino and Amour.  I think this will be the best non-Foreign language place to award Amour.  As long as Zero Dark Thirty wins nothing I'm happy.

My Ballot:
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Flight
Zero Dark Thirty

My Pick to Win:
Amour

Shoulda Been Here:
Ruby Sparks

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Cinematography

Nominees:
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

1984, Sid and Nancy, The Shawshank Redemption, Dead Man Walking, Fargo, The Big Lebowski, The Hurricane, O Brother Where Art Thou?, The Man Who Wasn't There, A Beautiful Mind, Jarhead, No Country for Old Men, Doubt, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, True Grit, Skyfall.  All of these movies have one thing in common: Master Cinematographer Roger Deakins.  They also happen to be the most beautiful movies of the turn of the millennium.  Roger Deakins has never won an Academy Award.  Let me repeat: Roger. Deakins. has. never. won. an. Academy. Award.  That is inexcusable.  Please fix this.  Now.

My Ballot:
Skyfall
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Life of Pi

My Pick to Win:
Skyfall

Shoulda been here:
Moonrise Kingdom

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Costume Design

Nominees:
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

Yet again, I really want to see Anna Karenina.  Redbox and Netflix getting this movie (and The Sessions for that matter) a month after the DVD is released is garbage.  Really makes me miss good ol' East Coast Music & Video.  Anyway, I certainly hop this is a 3-way race, because if the words "Oscar-winning" ever find their way in front of those abysmal Snow White remakes I will lose all hope in the critical community.

My Ballot:
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

My Pick to Win:
Anna Karenina

Shoulda Been Here:
Argo

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees:
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

One of the few changes for this year, the Academy decided to add "Hairstyling" to the title of this category.  This is always a hard category to predict.  Do they go for the over-the-top hobbits and dwarves in The Hobbit, the digital makeup removal of the microphones in Les Mis, or the transformation of Anthony Hopkins into the title character of Hitchcock?  Who knows?

My Ballot:
Les Miserables
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

My Pick to Win:
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Shoulda Been Here:
Lincoln

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Score

Nominees
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

The winner here is usually not the best score, but the most memorable score.  The one that the viewer is humming on the way home.  The only one of the above movies I can say that about is "Life of Pi".  I simply cannot believe "Cloud Atlas" got snubbed here though.  Its score is beautiful, memorable, and a key part of the story line.  I understand that the movie is divisive, but the score was BY FAR the best of 2012.

My Ballot:
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Argo

My Pick to Win:
Life of Pi

REALLY REALLY SHOULDA BEEN HERE!!!:
Cloud Atlas

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Production Design

Nominees:
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

This is always a pretty tough race to call.  Do the voters go for the prettiest film, the one with the best props, the one that is most historically accurate, the one with the most color, etc., etc.?  The VERY different design and source of the films included don't make it any easier.  I could easily make a case for any of these films winning.  Still, I think the Academy will want to honor Les Miserables somewhere, and the non-special effect visual categories may be that place.  This also marks the first category that I'm breaking down where I haven't seen all of the films.  I just don't think I'll get around to seeing Anna Karenina by the big night...  :(

My Ballot:
Lincoln
Les Miserables
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi

My Pick to Win:
Les Miserables

Shoulda Been Here:
Cloud Atlas

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Film Editing

Nominees:
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

History shows that this category has been the "technical" category pretty much reserved for the Best Pic front runners.  Argo and Lincoln really set themselves apart in my opinion for taking stories that could easily become mundane and creating tight, ultra-entertaining masterpieces.  I know the picture above doesn't really show "editing".  I just feel that anything I can do to bring attention to the greatness of Ben Affleck's direction is much deserved to make up for one of the worst snubs in recent Oscar history.

My Ballot:
Argo
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty

My Pick:
Argo

Shoulda Been Here:
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Animated Feature Film

Nominees:
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

For the past fifteen years or so this has been a pretty easy category to predict.  Most of the time, you just go with the Pixar movie, and while Brave is a beautiful fable, it was certainly not up to the standards set by the best animation studio in history.  Still, as Pixar had a small decline in quality, the other studios are most certainly catching up.  Save for the Ice Age and Madagascar franchises, animation studios have gotten rid of the idea that they can churn out these movies without regard to quality because kids will eat up anything.  Frankenweenie and ParaNorman are certainly more adult/teen oriented films, but something about both of the films seemed to lack the heart necessary to tell their stories.  Pirates was a fun little story with more inside jokes than an evolutionary biologist or Victorian historian can handle.  It's a close call between the last two, but Ralph just barely avoids becoming a direct Iron Giant clone, and maintains enough of its wonder to be the best of the year.

My Ballot:
Wreck-It Ralph
Brave
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
ParaNorman
Frankenweenie

My Pick to Win:
Wreck-It Ralph

Shoulda Been Here:
The Secret World of Arrietty

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Song

Nominees:
"Before My Time" - Chasing Ice
"Suddenly" - Les Miserables
"Pi's Lullaby" - Life of Pi
"Skyfall" - Skyfall
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" - Ted

This one's pretty easy to predict.  A big star with a big voice performing one of the best Bond songs ever.  Add to that the complete obscurity of the rest of the nominated songs (especially Chasing Ice - I had never even heard of the movie, let alone the song).  I usually only vote for movies I have seen, but I did watch the youtube video for the Chasing Ice song.  It's pretty, but it's no Adele.

My Ballot:
"Skyfall" - Skyfall
"Before My Time" - Chasing Ice
"Suddenly" - Les Miserables
"Pi's Lullaby" - Life of Pi
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" - Ted

My Pick to win:
"Skyfall" - Skyfall

Shoulda been here:
"Arrietty's Song" - The Secret World of Arrietty

Countdown to Oscar: Best Sound Editing

Nominees:
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Here we have the other sound category: Sound Editing.  Unlike mixing, the editing award is more of a sound "effects" award.  It follows that it usually goes to the more special effects driven movies.  For this reason, I don't really see any film but Life of Pi having a shot here.  Nearly all of the sounds in the film were created from scratch anyway, and (save for Argo) it is probably the voters favorite film listed.

My ballot:
Django Unchained
Skyfall
Argo
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty

My pick to win:
Life of Pi

Shoulda been here:
The Avengers

Countdown to Oscar: Best Sound Mixing

Nominees:
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

And here we have the two seemingly most out of place Oscar categories:  the sound awards.  Nobody knows the nominees by name, Robin Williams infamously joked that no one cares about the prizes, and most people don't even understand the difference between the Oscar for sound mixing and the one for editing.  Let's start with mixing.  It is the sound mixing technician's job to combine all of the raw sound that was either recorded or added in post production (by special effects or foley artists) into a free flowing, natural, and well balancing final cut.  Not really much more to say about that to break down the nominees, but I don't really see how Les Mis loses this one.  They broke the rules of how sound could be captured for a movie musical and did so in a way that was not distracting and, at the same time, breathtakingly beautiful.

My ballot:
Les Miserables
Skyfall
Argo
Lincoln
Life of Pi

My pick to win:
Les Miserables

Shoulda been here:
Magic Mike

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Visual Effects

Every day until February 24th, I'm going to break down the Academy Awards. For each category, I will list the nominees, my ballot (the ranked nominees from best to worst in my opinion), my pick to win on the awards night, and a movie that I feel got left out and "shoulda" been nominated.

Nominees:
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

My first impression was: "Ugh..... I have to watch Snow White...." My instincts were right, the Charlize Theron/Thor/Twilight Chick movie was super forgettable and bland. Even the visual effects were nothing that was out-of-this-world. Not really sure who sold their soul to get this nominated. Prometheus is a fine movie, but, again, I can think of a single visual effects shot that was innovative or overly impressive. On the flipside of that, Life of Pi has beautiful and original effects, but the film suffered for the fact that every shot is obviously full of visual effects. By definition if you are able to say to yourself "Wow that's an awesome special effect!" while watching a movie then that isn't a very good visual effect.  Compare that feeling to the totally immersive experience that was provided by The Avengers and The Hobbit.  Not once did I think about the visual effects in these movies because they made a fantasy world completely real.

Still, I feel that the Academy will want to award Life of Pi, and it'll probably have to come in the technical categories.

My Ballot:
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

My pick to win:
Life of Pi

Shoulda been here:
Cloud Atlas