Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Score

Best Original Score:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

I wasn't able to catch Jackie or Passengers. Lion and Moonlight both have beautiful "awards-worthy" scores. Who am I kidding breaking this one down though?  This is as big of a slam dunk we will get on Sunday night. La La Land has some of the catchiest, hum-worthy, happy-feeling music in modern movie history.

My Ballot:
La La Land
Moonlight
Lion

My Pick to Win:
La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
Kubo and the Two Strings

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay:
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

I take this category as proof of La La Land's upcoming dominance of Oscar night. In a year where original screenwriting is at its recent zenith, a movie that is primarily song-driven and tells a traditional love story gets a nomination for its screenplay. I'm pretty sure the prize will go to Manchester, but the night will belong to the musical that has captivated the "city of stars".

My Ballot:
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea
The Lobster
La La Land

My Pick to Win:
Manchester by the Sea

Shamefully Snubbed:
Captain Fantastic

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

While researching snubs for this category I noticed that there was a serious lack of solid adaptations that were released in 2016. Most were already nominated. I fully expect Moonlight to run away with this Oscar, but the other nominees should not be ignored. Arrival was able to take the short story Story of Your Life and translate it into a beautiful sci-fi poem and Fences broke all the rules by pretty much just filming a Broadway play.

My Ballot:
Fences
Lion
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Moonlight

My Pick to Win:
Moonlight

Shamefully Snubbed:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Song

Best Original Song:
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" - La La Land
"Can't Stop the Feeling" - Trolls
"City of Stars" - La La Land
"The Empty Chair" - Jim: The James Foley Story
"How Far I'll Go" - Moana

How about this embarrassment of riches?!? Only one mediocre entry in the bunch (with apologies to the Foley film). "Can't Stop the Feeling" is easily the most popular song nominated since 2013's "Let it Go" and "Happy", but I don't think it really has a chance. "City of Stars" is the clear favorite as it is the most accessible, catchy song in the most popular award season movie of the year, but what if "Audition" splits the vote? Then OMG!!! Lin-Manuel Miranda will EGOT!!!!  I don't think it'll happen, but it still provides some excitement for a category that definitely took a couple of years off.

My Ballot:
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" - La La Land
"City of Stars" - La La Land
"How Far I'll Go" - Moana
"Can't Stop the Feeling" - Trolls
"The Empty Chair" - Jim: The James Foley Story

My Pick to Win:
"City of Stars" - La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
"Drive it Like You Stole It" - Sing Street

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Costume Design

Best Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

This another one of the perennially tough to predict categories. I think this may be one of the few categories that actually dodge the La La Land dominance. I can't imagine Allied winning as it garnered no buzz even with Brad Pitt leading the way. I would say Beasts has a chance, but then again no other Wizarding world movie won this award (and only the first Harry Potter was nominated). That leaves two period films about real women. I am going to put my money on the women that was actually renowned for her style.

My Ballot:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land

My Pick to Win:
Jackie

Shamefully Snubbed:
Captain Fantastic

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Actress

Best Actress:
Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Ruth Negga - Loving
Natalie Portman - Jackie
Emma Stone - La La Land
Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins

Natalie Portman seemed to have this one in the bag early in awards season, but then the La La deluge happened. This, coupled with the fact that Jackie never had a serious wide release in theaters, pretty much gave the award to Emma Stone. With no real backlash against the best picture frontrunner, it isn't a matter of how many La La Land will win, but which of its 14 nominations will it actually lose...  As for the other nominees, I don't know anyone who has seen Elle, Ruth Negga was the best part of a movie the Academy really wants to award but doesn't quite have the emotional oomph, and Meryl Streep is perfect (but that is actually a bit anticlimactic at this point). As for my snub below, I didn't actually like American Honey very much, but Sasha Lane's performance after literally being picked up off the street was jaw-dropping.

My Ballot:
Emma Stone - La La Land
Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins
Ruth Negga - Loving

My Pick to Win:
Emma Stone - La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
Sasha Lane - American Honey

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Visual Effects

Best Visual Effects:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo & the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

No best picture nominees in the bunch, so this would seem to be a tough prediction. Still, I don't think any of the others can compete with the groundbreaking effects in The Jungle Book. Deepwater Horizon was a welcome surprise, but its effects are nothing more than traditional explosions. Each of the other nominees simply improve on techniques previously demonstrated (Dr. Strange - Inception, Kubo - other Laika films, and Rogue One - Star Wars films... duh). Also interesting that Disney took 3/5 nominees in this category. If they acquire Laika, I'm going to submit an antitrust lawsuit.

My Ballot:
Kubo & the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Jungle Book
Deepwater Horizon

My Pick to Win:
The Jungle Book

Shamefully Snubbed:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them