Countdown to Oscar Night (abbreviated) Part 1: Acting

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami...
Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah

What a great field of actors. I would not be upset to see any of these men take home the award. As much as I love Lakeith Stanfield, he was the lead actor from Judas. Some experts are guessing that his nomination may split the vote away from Daniel Kaluuya's master portrayal of Chairman Fred Hampton, but I just don't see that happening. Pretty sure he will take this one. 

Side note: I think this is where Chadwick Boseman should've gotten his well-deserved posthumous praise because the best performance of the year was completely snubbed (see Best Actor below).

My Ballot
Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami...
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Lakeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah (only because it is a lead performance)

My Pick to Win
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

Shamefully Snubbed
Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman - The Father
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari

This category will be a pretty good early measure of what kind of night we will be having next Sunday. Mank was the most nominated film this year, but I don't know a single person who actually likes it. It does, however, serve the tried and true Oscar trope of Hollywood celebrating movies about Hollywood. Seyfried had all of the early buzz in this category but has since lost most of her lead to Minari's lovable grandma portrayed by Yuh-Jung Youn. If Seyfried wins despite the opposing momentum, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mank swipe more awards (including Best Picture) which would make for a very disappointing night. The Academy could also choose to give Glenn Close a lifetime achievement award for a pretty pedestrian performance in one of the worst movies to ever be able to claim an Oscar nod.

My favorite supporting performance of the year isn't nominated here because Viola Davis is nominated as a lead actress for about 20 minutes of screentime in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. So I guess I can't really say that she was snubbed, but she would've definitely been my pick here.

My Ballot

Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Olivia Colman - The Father
Amanda Seyfried - Mank

Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

My Pick to Win
Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari

Shamefully Snubbed
Talia Ryder - Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins - The Father
Gary Oldman - Mank
Steven Yuen - Minari

This is pretty easy. Rest-in-Peace Chadwick Boseman. His performance was maybe his best of his career. The tightrope that he had to walk to bring the young trumpeter Lovey to life was so delicate that I honestly can't imagine anyone else pulling it off without making the character despised. 

I know it's near sacrilege though, but Boseman's performance was not the year's best. Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods cemented his name amongst the acting greats with one of the greatest performances of the new century. I cannot stress enough how much you should seek out Spike Lee's film if for his performance alone.

My Ballot

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Anthony Hopkins - The Father

Steven Yuen - Minari

Gary Oldman - Mank

My Pick to Win
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Shamefully Snubbed
Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods

Best Actress

Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Where Best Actor is easy, Best Actress is nearly impossible to predict. I could make a good argument for 4 of the 5 nominees (and Vanessa Kirby still gave one of the best performances of the year, but, be honest, you haven't even heard of her or her movie). Neither Day nor McDormand would surprise me at all because they truly owned two of the best female-led movies of the year, but I guess I have to narrow it down to Davis and Mulligan. So.... do voters feel like dealing #OscarSoWhite a final blow by celebrating Davis? or.... do voters feel like adding an exclamation point to #MeToo by celebrating Mulligan's performance as the embodiment of female vengeance? I'm leaning towards the latter... Her's is my least favorite/impressive performance of the bunch but I think voters will be siding with her character rather than her performance.

My Ballot

Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (as before... points deducted because this is a supporting role)

Frances McDormand - Nomadland

Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

My Pick to Win
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Shamefully Snubbed
Sidney Flanigan - Never Rarely Sometimes Always