Best Picture/Best Director
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman / Martin Scorsese
Jojo Rabbit
Joker / Todd Phillips
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917 / Sam Mendes
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood / Quentin Tarantino
Parasite / Boon Joon-ho
Last year I had a bunch of fun writing about how all of the nominees would win, I figured I'd do it again. This year I am adding Best Director to the mix as well. For my Oscar Night countdown grand finale: Why all nine films WILL win Best Picture (and why five of them will win Best Director):
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Ford v Ferrari will win because there are way more "dads" in the voting pool than we realize. In such a divisive time in our nation it feels good to agree that driving fast and beating Italians is just plain fun. (see: Argo, The Hurt Locker, Gladiator)
The Irishman will win because it is destiny. Martin Scorsese directing Deniro, Pacino, and Pesci in a mobster movie that runs nearly four hours and will be quoted in frat houses for the next fifty years? If you look up "Oscar movie" in the encyclopedia you will see a picture of Pacino on the phone talking about "painting houses". I wouldn't be surprised if everyone involved with this movie had written their Oscar acceptance speeches during pre-production. Martin Scorsese especially should expect to win. Look at that competition! Other than Mendes, none of the others have won directing Oscars (and Mendes won for filming a plastic bag float around). They don't stand a chance. Scorsese only has one Oscar. How is that even possible??? (See: The Godfather, The Godfather Part II, The Departed)
Jojo Rabbit will win because Taika Waititi just applied the "Green Book" strategy to World War II. Make a funny buddy movie tackling a really tough subject. Jojo just replaces southern segregation with Nazi Germany and, instead of a black pianist and white driver, the movie has a pre-adolescent scamp and his imaginary friend Adolf Hitler. I mean... it's over baby... give them the award. (See: Green Book, Driving Miss Daisy, Rain Man)
Joker will win because it made a boat-load of money. It is the highest grossing R-rated movie worldwide of all time. It has ties to comics, 70s classic film and television, clowns, and juvenile "anti-capitalist" sentimentality. Aren't those topics exactly why the Academy Awards were conceived? Todd Phillips will also win best director as the voting bloc will show that Peter Farrelly (Green Book) wasn't a fluke and that they are ready for the 90s fart-joke auteurs to complete their journey to domination of modern art cinema. (see: The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King)
Little Women will win because the Academy is scared to death of #metoo. How on Earth did Greta Gerwig not get a Best Director nod? This movie was produced by three women, stars five actresses in their prime, directed by a woman who also wrote the screenplay based on a book by a woman! Come on guys! It's right there in the title! (see: Platoon, but, you know, with women...)
Marriage Story will win because it is the actual best movie nominated...... who am I kidding? It's my favorite movie of the year.... it doesn't stand a chance... (see: no movie... ever... :( )
1917 will win because it is the favorite. It checks all the boxes: Golden Globe Best Drama, PGA, DGA, BAFTA, Screenplay nomination, Directing nomination. A movie hasn't lost after being this far ahead and lost since La La Land (see above for why it lost). Sam Mendes will also win because he carried that camera for two solid hours through the fields of France following those two boys 102 years ago. He should get a little credit for that! (see: every 90s and 00s Oscar Best Picture)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will win because there is nothing the Academy loves more than celebrating themselves. It's in the title for goodness sakes!!! Quentin Tarantino will also win for directing because he was smart enough to stop making all those violent, verbose films about folks that weren't actors, stuntmen and directors long enough to make a violent, verbose film about actors, stuntmen, and directors. Give him all the awards! (See: The Artist)
Parasite will win because everyone on every podcast and website says it is their favorite. Since it was released it has not lost its position as the internet's correct answer to the question "What was the best film of 2019?". Bong Joon-ho will also win best director because he directed "the best film of 2019". The internet said so... so it must be true. Sure, no foreign film has ever won Best Picture (even when it was the oddsmaker's favorite like Roma last year), but no foreign film has ever been the highest rated film for the year on IMDb... (See: nothing really?)
There you have it... as for my ballot, for the first time in many years I didn't dislike any of the nominated films. Here's the way I would rank them:
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
1917
Parasite
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
My Pick to Win (Director)
Bong Joon-Ho - Parasite
My Pick to Win (Picture)
1917
Shamefully Snubbed
Uncut Gems and, of course, Greta Gerwig
That's it for another year of Oscar-crunching! See you on the red carpet!
Here's my full list of predictions:
Picture: 1917
Director: Bong Joon-ho - Parasite
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Actress: Renee Zellweger - Judy
Supp. Actor: Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Supp. Actress: Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Animated Film: Toy Story 4
Documentary: American Factory
International Film: Parasite
Makeup & Hairstyling: Bombshell
Costume Design: Little Women
Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sound Editing: 1917
Sound Mixing: 1917
Cinematography: 1917
Editing: Parasite
Visual Effects: The Lion King
Original Score: Joker
Original Song: "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" - Rocketman
Adapted Screenplay: Little Women
Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Live Action Short: Brotherhood
Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Animated Short: Hair Love
Until next year!
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