Countdown to Oscar Night: Filmmaking

Best Cinematography
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Roger Deakins strikes again. It took our greatest living cinematographer 23 years and 14 nominations after his first Oscar nomination (The Shawshank Redemption) to win his first Oscar (Blade Runner 2049), but it's only going to take him two more years to win his second. The Lighthouse is the only film nominated that approaches a groundbreaking level of art with its visuals, but it just doesn't have the Academy love that I expect to see for Mendes' day in war. With a lesser man behind the camera 1917 could have just been a neat visual trick, but Deakins' deft hand elevates it well above the rest.

My Ballot
1917
The Lighthouse
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman

My Pick to Win
1917

Shamefully Snubbed
The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Best Editing
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite

As with many years, this category will be a really important in previewing what the big categories could look like. With front-runner 1917 out of the running, predicting this one is a bit complicated (side note- Birdman, the other recent "one-take" Oscar darling was also not nominated for editing. I lamented then that voters must have assumed the film was actually shot in one take with no editing. Obviously this isn't true and their lack of inclusion is puzzling.). If Ford or Jojo win here, I think you can safely say 1917 has Best Picture sewed up. On the other hand, any of the other three winning (especially Parasite) could spell a possible spoiler for the top prize.

My Ballot
Jojo Rabbit
Parasite
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker

My Pick to Win
Parasite

Shamefully Snubbed
1917

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Until very recently this award went to that rare film that had groundbreaking visual effects (think 2001, Star Wars, The Abyss), but now all big money films have near flawless effects. This fact changes the recent winners into the most artistically and uniquely applied effects rather than most groundbreaking (Life of Pi, Blade Runner 2049, First Man). With that in mind, I really think The Lion King is going to win this one. Which stinks because it is easily the worst movie nominated, but I guess it's pretty....

My Ballot
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King

My Pick to Win
The Lion King

Shamefully Snubbed
Spider-man: Far From Home