Countdown to Oscar Night (the sad conclusion)

 So for the first time in a decade I am not going to be able to finish my “Countdown” Oscar blog in the normal way. I am refereeing a tennis tournament in Durham for the weekend and I clumsily forgot my laptop. I am typing this on my phone and I’ll finish my picks, but it won’t be nearly as pretty as I’d like it to be. Sorry.  Here goes:

Best Original Screenplay

My Ballot:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

Judas and the Black Messiah

Minari 

My pick to win:

Promising Young Woman

Shamefully Snubbed:

Palm Springs

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Ballot:

One Night in Miami...

The Father

White Tiger

Nomadland

Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm

My Pick to Win:

Nomadland 

Shamefully Snubbed:

Palm Springs

Best Visual Effects

My ballot:

Love and Monsters

Midnight Sky

My Pick to Win:

Tenet

Shamefully Snubbed:

Birds of Prey

Best Sound

My ballot:

Sound of Metal

Soul

Mank

My Pick to Win:

Sound of Metal

Shamefully Snubbed:

Da 5 Bloods

Best Production Design

My Ballot:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

The Father

Mank

My Pick to Win:

Mank

Shamefully Snubbed:

Birds of Prey

Best Original Song

My Ballot:

“Husavik” - Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

“Speak Now” - One Night in Miami...

“Fight for You” - Judas and the Black Messiah

“Hear My Voice” - The Trial of the Chicago 7

My Pick to Win:

“Speak Now” - One Night in Miami...

Shamefully Snubbed:

“Turntables” - All In: The Fight for Democracy

Best Original Score

My Ballot:

Soul

Da 5 Bloods

Mank

Minari

My Pick to Win:

Soul

Shamefully Snubbed:

Nomadland

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

My Ballot:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Hillbilly Elegy

My Pick to Win:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Shamefully Snubbed:

Birds of Prey

Best Editing

My Ballot:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Promising Young Woman

Nomadland

The Father

Sound of Metal

My Pick to Win:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Shamefully Snubbed:

Palm Springs

Best Director

My Ballot:

Chloe Zhao - Nomadland

Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman

Lee Isaac Chung - Minari

David Fincher - Mank

Thomas Vinterberg - Another Round

My Pick to Win:

Chloe Zhao - Nomadland

Shamefully Snubbed:

Spike Lee - Da 5 Bloods

Best Costume Design

My ballot:

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

My Pick to Win:

Emma

Shamefully Snubbed:

Promising Young Woman

Best Cinematography 

My Ballot:

Nomadland

Mank

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Judas and the Black Messiah

My Pick to Win:

Nomadland

Shamefully Snubbed:

Palm Springs

Best Picture

My Ballot:

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Minari

Sound of Metal

Judas and the Black Messiah

The Father

Mank

My Pick to Win:

Nomadland

Shamefully Snubbed:

Da 5 Bloods

Countdown to Oscar Night (abbreviated) Part 2: Shorts, Docs, & Cartoons

 Best Animated Feature Film

Onward

Over the Moon

A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Soul

Wolfwalkers

This one is pretty easy. Soul has it wrapped up and it isn't really close. I saw all of these except for Farmageddon. I wish Aardman would make new stuff like Chicken Run rather than more of the sheep stuff.

My Ballot

Soul

Onward

Wolfwalkers

Over the Moon 

My Pick to Win
Soul

Shamefully Snubbed
I am ashamed to say the only other animated movie I saw from 2020 was The Croods sequel, and that isn't worth a snub mention.

Best Documentary Feature

Collective

Crip Camp

The Mole Agent

My Octopus Teacher

Time

I only saw three of these, and, luckily, they are the three that I believe have a chance. Crip Camp is the most conventional and tells the untold story of the origins of the Americans with Disabilities Act. My Octopus Teacher is easily the prettiest and highlights the friendship between a depressed photojournalist and an octopus that he dives with daily (seriously). My favorite though was Time. It is the most stylistic mixing new footage with VHS recordings and weaving timelines together as the viewer journeys along with a broken family fighting to be reunited. 

This one will be close, but I think the voters will lean towards the fluff (Octopus) rather than the historic (Crip Camp) or the challenging (Time).

My Ballot

Time

Crip Camp

My Octopus Teacher 

My Pick to Win
My Octopus Teacher

Shamefully Snubbed

Becoming

Best Documentary Short

Colette

A Concerto is a Conversation

Do Not Split

Hunger Ward

A Love Song for Latasha

This is a very interesting mix of shorts. Other than Hunger Ward and Collette (which both felt pretty exploitative in quite different ways), I would urge folks to seek out these films and educate themselves about some of the horror and beauty of the real world.

My Ballot

A Concerto is a Conversation

A Love Song for Latasha

Do Not Split

Colette

Hunger Ward

My Pick to Win
A Love Song for Latasha

Shamefully Snubbed

The Speed Cubers

Best Animated Short

Burrow

Genius Loci

If Anything Happens I Love You

Opera

Yes-People

In what is usually a pretty strange category, this may be the strangest bunch I've ever seen. My favorite is the one with no dialogue that uses a single image to tell the story of all of human history.

My Ballot

Opera

If Anything Happens I Love You

Burrow

Genius Loci

Yes-People

My Pick to Win
Burrow

Best Live ActionShort

Feeling Through

The Letter Room

The Present

Two Distant Strangers

White Eye

Let's be honest. You haven't seen these. I have seen all but The Present because the copy I found didn't have subtitles. You can probably skip all of these.

My Ballot

Two Distant Strangers

The Letter Room

White Eye

Feeling Through

My Pick to Win
The Letter Room

Countdown to Oscar Night (abbreviated) Part 1: Acting

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami...
Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah

What a great field of actors. I would not be upset to see any of these men take home the award. As much as I love Lakeith Stanfield, he was the lead actor from Judas. Some experts are guessing that his nomination may split the vote away from Daniel Kaluuya's master portrayal of Chairman Fred Hampton, but I just don't see that happening. Pretty sure he will take this one. 

Side note: I think this is where Chadwick Boseman should've gotten his well-deserved posthumous praise because the best performance of the year was completely snubbed (see Best Actor below).

My Ballot
Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami...
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7
Lakeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah (only because it is a lead performance)

My Pick to Win
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

Shamefully Snubbed
Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman - The Father
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari

This category will be a pretty good early measure of what kind of night we will be having next Sunday. Mank was the most nominated film this year, but I don't know a single person who actually likes it. It does, however, serve the tried and true Oscar trope of Hollywood celebrating movies about Hollywood. Seyfried had all of the early buzz in this category but has since lost most of her lead to Minari's lovable grandma portrayed by Yuh-Jung Youn. If Seyfried wins despite the opposing momentum, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mank swipe more awards (including Best Picture) which would make for a very disappointing night. The Academy could also choose to give Glenn Close a lifetime achievement award for a pretty pedestrian performance in one of the worst movies to ever be able to claim an Oscar nod.

My favorite supporting performance of the year isn't nominated here because Viola Davis is nominated as a lead actress for about 20 minutes of screentime in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. So I guess I can't really say that she was snubbed, but she would've definitely been my pick here.

My Ballot

Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Olivia Colman - The Father
Amanda Seyfried - Mank

Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

My Pick to Win
Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari

Shamefully Snubbed
Talia Ryder - Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins - The Father
Gary Oldman - Mank
Steven Yuen - Minari

This is pretty easy. Rest-in-Peace Chadwick Boseman. His performance was maybe his best of his career. The tightrope that he had to walk to bring the young trumpeter Lovey to life was so delicate that I honestly can't imagine anyone else pulling it off without making the character despised. 

I know it's near sacrilege though, but Boseman's performance was not the year's best. Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods cemented his name amongst the acting greats with one of the greatest performances of the new century. I cannot stress enough how much you should seek out Spike Lee's film if for his performance alone.

My Ballot

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Anthony Hopkins - The Father

Steven Yuen - Minari

Gary Oldman - Mank

My Pick to Win
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Shamefully Snubbed
Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods

Best Actress

Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Where Best Actor is easy, Best Actress is nearly impossible to predict. I could make a good argument for 4 of the 5 nominees (and Vanessa Kirby still gave one of the best performances of the year, but, be honest, you haven't even heard of her or her movie). Neither Day nor McDormand would surprise me at all because they truly owned two of the best female-led movies of the year, but I guess I have to narrow it down to Davis and Mulligan. So.... do voters feel like dealing #OscarSoWhite a final blow by celebrating Davis? or.... do voters feel like adding an exclamation point to #MeToo by celebrating Mulligan's performance as the embodiment of female vengeance? I'm leaning towards the latter... Her's is my least favorite/impressive performance of the bunch but I think voters will be siding with her character rather than her performance.

My Ballot

Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (as before... points deducted because this is a supporting role)

Frances McDormand - Nomadland

Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

My Pick to Win
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Shamefully Snubbed
Sidney Flanigan - Never Rarely Sometimes Always