Best Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
If you've been reading my blog (or have spoken to me about such things over the past month or so), you know that I am pretty underwhelmed with this year's crop of nominees. Only 2 were in my top 10 of 2018. The rest weren't necessarily bad films (except Bohemian Rhapsody) just overshadowed by the superior films that got left off. For reference, here is my top 10 of 2018 presented alphabetically:
BlacKkKlansman
Blindspotting
Eighth Grade
First Reformed
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace
Roma
Sorry to Bother You
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Won't You Be My Neighbor
With this in mind, I am going to write up my Countdown finale a little differently this year. Here is why all 8 nominees WILL win tonight (and an example in Best Picture history that echoes my logic):
Black Panther will win because it is most representative of 2018. It was the highest grossing film at the box office and garnered near-universal critical acclaim. It makes a statement about our world while providing an entertaining superhero romp. When people think about 2018 fifty years from now this is the film that will spring to mind. (See Titanic, Gone with the Wind, Ben-Hur)
BlacKkKlansman will win as an ultimate declaration that the Academy is done with #OscarSoWhite. The left-leaning group of voters is deeply frustrated with their image and history of non-diversity so this year they will put an end to it and give the award to one of Hollywood's most prolific black directors. It doesn't hurt that this movie is also one of Spike Lee's most accessible, easy to watch, and least controversial films. (See The Hurt Locker but replace "black" with women)
Bohemian Rhapsody will win because the voters are idiots. The late-baby-boomers, early-genXers that make up the voting block got all nostalgic for the Queen music and Rami Malek's fake teeth and were blind to the fact that the movie is pretty garbage. This may sound silly, but it is exactly what happened at the Golden Globes. (See The Greatest Show on Earth, Around the World in 80 Days)
The Favourite will win because it says so in the title. It was the confusing critical darling that has become "cool" to list as your favorite of the year. Don't forget the voters are smarter than you. "You have probably never even heard of Yorgos Lanthimos. We nominated him for best screenplay two years ago for The Lobster." (See The King's Speech, The English Patient)
Green Book will win because it helps voter feel better about their whiteness. That sounds harsh, I know, but the more I think about it this film, it just reeks of "white savior" complex. I really dug it and it tells a moving story, I'm just not sure it's the story we need at this point in our country's progress with race-relations. (See 12 Years a Slave, Driving Miss Daisy)
Roma will win because it's the actual best film of the nominees.....hahahhahahahhaha. It is actually the odds-on favorite, but I'll believe it when they say the name (and then have Jimmy Kimmel double check to see if the envelope was right). It just has too many strikes against it. Many voters despise the "Netflix" model and see it as an attack on the traditional theater experience. Only 10 foreign language films have ever been nominated for Best Picture and NONE of them have won. (See Nothing like it.... I guess you could say Slumdog Millionaire because it was the last time that my favorite of the nominees actually won)
A Star Is Born will win because the other awards don't have as much influence as most people think. Star was the favorite heading into awards season and dropped off the map after getting shut out at the Golden Globes. Still, there isn't actually much overlap between the voters and this movie is really quite good. It also hits all of the normal Oscar notes of rags-to-riches story, art solving everything, and love/loss. (See The Artist, Chicago, Rocky)
Vice will win because the voters are fed up with the politics of the United States and want to give the biggest middle finger to those on the "right" that they can possibly muster. I'm sure they just ate it up when Christian Bale thanked Satan for his inspiration. (See Platoon, In the Heat of the Night)
So there you have it, why all 8 nominees will win tonight.
My Ballot
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
A Star Is Born
Green Book
Black Panther
The Favourite
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
My Pick to Win
I've changed my mind 4 times in the past 24 hours.... Let's make history here goes: Roma
Shamefully Snubbed
Blindspotting
Until next year.... thanks for reading!
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