Countdown to Oscar Night: Grand Finale!!

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

The Shawshank Redemption, Fargo, Kundun, O Brother, Where Art Thou?, The Man Who Wasn't There, No Country for Old Men, The Assassination of Jesse James..., The Reader, True Grit, Skyfall, Prisoners, Unbroken, Sicario, Blade Runner 2049. 14, count 'em FOURTEEN nominations for Roger Deakins without a win. This has GOT to be the year for the greatest living cinematographer. C'mon Academy, you can do it!!!

My Ballot
Blade Runner 2049
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk

My Pick to Win
Blade Runner 2049

Shamefully Snubbed
Call Me by Your Name


Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is Baby Driver's award. I present to you Exhibit A, B, C, D, E....Z...:
The best opening scene in any movie since Carl and Ellie.

My Ballot
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Pick to Win
Baby Driver

Shamefully Snubbed
T2: Trainspotting


Directing
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

I think this is a heads up battle between Jordan Peele (the Oscars signaling they are finally done with #OscarSoWhite) and Guillermo del Toro (the actual best director of 2017). I hate to put it that bluntly, but #truth.

My Ballot
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out

My Pick to Win
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Shamefully Snubbed
Dee Rees, Mudbound



Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

As you can probably guess from the picture above I think this is a three movie race. If this was the 2015 Academy, I would say this is a slam dunk for Three Billboards as the movie with the early lead usually held strong and the upsets were just lip service discussed to keep people interested for the two month lead up to the big night. Moonlight made it quite clear that times have changed. As I'm typing this, Get Out just won the Independent Spirit Award. It's a fine film, but I just feel that it is the least award-worthy of any of the nominated films. It is an above-average horror film with a VERY smart anti-racism hook, but it's just not a groundbreaking piece of cinematic art. I hope the Academy's ranking system allows The Shape of Water to sneak in between the traditionalists and the member's collective guilt. Of course, my favorite, Call Me by Your Name, doesn't stand a chance.

My Ballot
Call Me by Your Name
The Shape of Water
Lady Bird
Darkest Hour
The Post
Phantom Thread
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dunkirk
Get Out

My Pick to Win
The Shape of Water

Shamefully Snubbed
Mudbound


For anybody keeping score at home, here is a list of my complete 2018 Oscar predictions:
Picture: The Shape of Water
Directing: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Editing: Baby Driver
Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Actress in a Supporting Role: Alison Janney, I, Tonya
Actor in a Supporting Role: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name
Song: "Remember Me", Coco
Score: The Shape of Water
Documentary: Faces Places
Documentary Short: Edith + Eddie
Live Action Short: DeKalb Elementary
Foreign Language: A Fantastic Woman
Animated Feature: Coco
Animated Short: Dear Basketball
Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Makeup & Hair: Darkest Hour
Production Design: The Shape of Water
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Baby Driver

Whew....