Countdown to Oscar Night Grand Finale

Best Picture:
Arrival 
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Yet another great year for movies. I'm not sure if I am becoming more like the Academy as I get older or the Academy is getting it right now more often. Either way, this group of nine films includes my four favorite films of 2016, Another one that makes my top 10, and two more that would find a spot in my top 20. For the first time since I have been diligently following these awards (around 20 years), my favorite film of the year is the favorite to win Best Picture. I'd still say there is an outside chance of Moonlight getting swept up in an ultra-political year, but there is simply not enough La La Land detraction for me to see that as anything other than a long shot.

None of the movies here are bad (which is new of late since the expansion beyond five nominees), but here are my personal rankings and how I would vote if given the oppurtuinity.  See you tonight!!! Be prepared for plenty of singing and dancing!

My Ballot:
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Lion
Fences
Hell or High Water
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea

My Pick to Win:
La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
Captain Fantastic

My Full Oscar Predictions (for those keeping score at home):
Best Picture: La La Land
Actor in a Leading Role: Denzel Washington, Fences
Actor in a Supporting Role: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Actress in a Leading Role: Emma Stone, La La Land
Actress in a Supporting Role: Viola Davis, Fences
Film Editing: La La Land
Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Music (Original Score): La La Land
Music (Original Song): "City of Stars", La La Land
Production Design: La La Land
Animated Short Film: Piper
Animated Feature Film: Zootopia
Cinematography: La La Land
Costume Design: Jackie
Directing: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Documentary (Feature): O.J.: Made in America
Documentary (Short Subject): The White Helmets
Live Action Short Film: Silent Nights
Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Sound Mixing: La La Land
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Moonlight
Writing (Original Screenplay): Manchester by the Sea

...whew.... with 4.5 hours to spare!!!

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Actor

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling - La La Land
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington - Fences

This one seemed like a slam dunk for Casey Affleck back in January. He was steamrolling all of the smaller award shows, but then two things happened. As with nearly every modern awards season, it seems that somebody's old dirt comes back to haunt them. Mr. Affleck was on this year's unfortunate casualty of such charges. I'm not really interested in digging into the accusations here, but it definitely began to crash his Oscar stock. Then, Fences began to hit its stride at the box office. The more people saw Denzel in his best performance since The Hurricane, the more people loved it. I'm pretty sure this (coupled with the #oscarsowhite backlash) will win Mr. Washington his third Academy Award. All of the other nominees are deserving, which is shown by my ballot below. Captain Fantastic is one of my favorite movies of the year and it is driven by Viggo Mortensen's delicate, pitch perfect performance, and yet the other nominees simply rank higher.

My Ballot:
Denzel Washington - Fences
Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Ryan Gosling - La La Land
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic

My Pick to Win:
Denzel Washington - Fences

Shamefully Snubbed:
Nate Parker - The Birth of a Nation

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis - Fences
Naomie Harris - Moonlight
Nicole Kidman - Lion
Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

I'd really like to sit down and talk to an average Academy voter when they submit their nominations because my image of them in my mind isn't very pretty. It goes something like this:

Hmmm... Best supporting actress.... let's see here....  Oooooohhhh Viola Davis! She isn't on the poster for Fences so she must be supporting, we can make up for snubbing her for The Help. She's so nice, she'll give a great acceptance speech. She may even cry. Okay, who's next? Octavia Spencer's in a movie about strong black women! Yaaaasssss. I know her, she's so well-spoken. I still don't think that's enough to make up for having 20 white acting nominees last year, wasn't there a crackhead mother in Moonlight? What was her name? [checks IMDB.com] Naomie Harris. Okay... two more... Were Michelle Williams, Nicole Kidman, Amy Adams, or Cate Blanchett in anything this year? No Cate Blanchett? Darn. All three of the others were! Woohoo! And Amy Adams was the lead? Excellent, I'll have to remember that for later [spoiler alert - doesn't remember]. All done! Now don't I feel great about myself!

Yeah, it probably goes something like that...  PS: Janelle Monae was the best thing about Hidden Figures. Just sayin'.

My Ballot:
Viola Davis - Fences
Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea
Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
Nicole Kidman - Lion
Naomie Harris - Moonlight

My Pick to Win:
Viola Davis - Fences

Shamefully Snubbed:
Janelle Monae - Hidden Figures

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel - Lion
Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals

One of the easiest locks of the night. Mr. Ali has had his name on this award for a few months now. That isn't to say its the best performance (he wasn't even nominated for a Spirit award where I believe Moonlight will win best picture). I'd even say it isn't Mahershala Ali's best performance of 2016 (in my opinion he did more with his roles in both Hidden Figures and Free State of Jones). Even with that in mind, this award is an inevitability. The Academy is desperate to fling off the #oscarsowhite stereotype and I am pretty confident that three of the four acting awards will go to people of color. It still doesn't excuse last years snubbing of Beasts of No Nation and Tangerine or this years complete ignorance of The Birth of a Nation, but that's how the Academy rolls.... They did the same thing in 2001 when Denzel Washington won for Training Day (after being snubbed for The Hurricane) and Halle Berry won for Monster's Ball (after every woman of color had been snubbed for nearly 80 years).

As for the other nominees, Jeff Bridges was a powerhouse, and deserves every accolade he receives, Dev Patel was the lead actor of Lion and I don't understand his nomination, and Lucas Hedges gave a solid if completely forgettable performance in what will go down as another completely forgettable Kenneth Lonergan movie.

My Ballot:
Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Dev Patel - Lion
Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea

My Pick to Win: 
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight

Shamefully Snubbed:
Jovan Adepo - Fences

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Cinematography

Best Cinematography:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Yet another category that I think will fold to the La La Land tsunami tomorrow night. Another movie wouldn't surprise me as much in this category, but the second most buzzworthy movie, Moonlight, has the type of muted beautiful camerawork that usually doesn't get much love from the Academy. As you can see below, even a musical nerd like myself has to concede that this was a stellar year for gorgeous film making (and what I have seen of Silence is breathtaking as well).

My Ballot:
Arrival
Lion
La La Land
Moonlight

My Pick to Win:
La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Film Editing

Best Film Editing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

This will be the most predictive early award of the night. If La La Land wins, the rout is on.... but... if Moonlight is able to sneak in an upset here then the night becomes much more interesting. Unfortunately that's about the extent of what makes this category interesting. Plenty of slick, well-made movies, but no new ground was broken at the editing station this year.

My Ballot:
La La Land
Arrival
Moonlight
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water

My Pick to Win:
La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
Kubo and the Two Strings

Countdown to Oscar Night: Spirit Awards Bonus!

The Academy Awards may be the big prize of this weekend, but the Film Independent Spirit Awards will always hold a special place for me. Showing no regard for popularity, box office, studio support, or media frenzy, the Spirit Awards usually pick the best films rather than the most buzzworthy. I wasn't able to find as many of these as usual, but here is my 2016 Spirit Award ballot ranking the movies I have seen in each category.

Best Editing:
Hell or High Water
Swiss Army Man
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Best Cinematography:
Moonlight
American Honey
The Childhood of a Leader

Best Supporting Female:
Molly Shannon - Other People
Riley Keough - American Honey
Paulina Garcia - Little Men

Best Supporting Male:
Shia LeBeouf - American Honey
Ben Foster - Hell or High Water
Ralph Fiennes - A Bigger Splash
Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
Craig Robinson - Morris From America

Best Female Lead:
Sasha Lane - American Honey
Ruth Negga - Loving

Best Male Lead:
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
Jesse Plemons - Other People
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea

Best First Screenplay:
Other People
The Witch

Best Screenplay:
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Little Men

Best Director:
Andrea Arnold - American Honey
Jeff Nichols - Loving
Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

Best First Feature:
Other People
Swiss Army Man
The Witch
The Fits
The Childhood of a Leader

Best Feature:
American Honey
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

The "Hipster" Oscars show is tomorrow!  See you there!

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Director

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve - Arrival

Damien Chazelle is 31 years old. He was nominated for an Oscar for his first film. He is going to win an Oscar for his second film. Let us hope he has a long and prolific career. I don't really think this one is close. There is no buzz for Lonergan or Villeneuve and it would've been nice to see either one of them replaced by Denzel Washington's master lesson in how a stage play can be put on screen. Mel Gibson was lucky to have his anti-Semite ban lifted to get nominated.  And Barry Jenkins is almost in a similar position Chazelle was with his first film a couple of years ago.

My Ballot:
Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge
Denis Villeneuve - Arrival
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

My Pick to Win:
Damien Chazelle - La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
Denzel Washington - Fences

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Score

Best Original Score:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

I wasn't able to catch Jackie or Passengers. Lion and Moonlight both have beautiful "awards-worthy" scores. Who am I kidding breaking this one down though?  This is as big of a slam dunk we will get on Sunday night. La La Land has some of the catchiest, hum-worthy, happy-feeling music in modern movie history.

My Ballot:
La La Land
Moonlight
Lion

My Pick to Win:
La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
Kubo and the Two Strings

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay:
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

I take this category as proof of La La Land's upcoming dominance of Oscar night. In a year where original screenwriting is at its recent zenith, a movie that is primarily song-driven and tells a traditional love story gets a nomination for its screenplay. I'm pretty sure the prize will go to Manchester, but the night will belong to the musical that has captivated the "city of stars".

My Ballot:
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea
The Lobster
La La Land

My Pick to Win:
Manchester by the Sea

Shamefully Snubbed:
Captain Fantastic

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

While researching snubs for this category I noticed that there was a serious lack of solid adaptations that were released in 2016. Most were already nominated. I fully expect Moonlight to run away with this Oscar, but the other nominees should not be ignored. Arrival was able to take the short story Story of Your Life and translate it into a beautiful sci-fi poem and Fences broke all the rules by pretty much just filming a Broadway play.

My Ballot:
Fences
Lion
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Moonlight

My Pick to Win:
Moonlight

Shamefully Snubbed:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Original Song

Best Original Song:
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" - La La Land
"Can't Stop the Feeling" - Trolls
"City of Stars" - La La Land
"The Empty Chair" - Jim: The James Foley Story
"How Far I'll Go" - Moana

How about this embarrassment of riches?!? Only one mediocre entry in the bunch (with apologies to the Foley film). "Can't Stop the Feeling" is easily the most popular song nominated since 2013's "Let it Go" and "Happy", but I don't think it really has a chance. "City of Stars" is the clear favorite as it is the most accessible, catchy song in the most popular award season movie of the year, but what if "Audition" splits the vote? Then OMG!!! Lin-Manuel Miranda will EGOT!!!!  I don't think it'll happen, but it still provides some excitement for a category that definitely took a couple of years off.

My Ballot:
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" - La La Land
"City of Stars" - La La Land
"How Far I'll Go" - Moana
"Can't Stop the Feeling" - Trolls
"The Empty Chair" - Jim: The James Foley Story

My Pick to Win:
"City of Stars" - La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
"Drive it Like You Stole It" - Sing Street

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Costume Design

Best Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

This another one of the perennially tough to predict categories. I think this may be one of the few categories that actually dodge the La La Land dominance. I can't imagine Allied winning as it garnered no buzz even with Brad Pitt leading the way. I would say Beasts has a chance, but then again no other Wizarding world movie won this award (and only the first Harry Potter was nominated). That leaves two period films about real women. I am going to put my money on the women that was actually renowned for her style.

My Ballot:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land

My Pick to Win:
Jackie

Shamefully Snubbed:
Captain Fantastic

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Actress

Best Actress:
Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Ruth Negga - Loving
Natalie Portman - Jackie
Emma Stone - La La Land
Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins

Natalie Portman seemed to have this one in the bag early in awards season, but then the La La deluge happened. This, coupled with the fact that Jackie never had a serious wide release in theaters, pretty much gave the award to Emma Stone. With no real backlash against the best picture frontrunner, it isn't a matter of how many La La Land will win, but which of its 14 nominations will it actually lose...  As for the other nominees, I don't know anyone who has seen Elle, Ruth Negga was the best part of a movie the Academy really wants to award but doesn't quite have the emotional oomph, and Meryl Streep is perfect (but that is actually a bit anticlimactic at this point). As for my snub below, I didn't actually like American Honey very much, but Sasha Lane's performance after literally being picked up off the street was jaw-dropping.

My Ballot:
Emma Stone - La La Land
Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins
Ruth Negga - Loving

My Pick to Win:
Emma Stone - La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
Sasha Lane - American Honey

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Visual Effects

Best Visual Effects:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo & the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

No best picture nominees in the bunch, so this would seem to be a tough prediction. Still, I don't think any of the others can compete with the groundbreaking effects in The Jungle Book. Deepwater Horizon was a welcome surprise, but its effects are nothing more than traditional explosions. Each of the other nominees simply improve on techniques previously demonstrated (Dr. Strange - Inception, Kubo - other Laika films, and Rogue One - Star Wars films... duh). Also interesting that Disney took 3/5 nominees in this category. If they acquire Laika, I'm going to submit an antitrust lawsuit.

My Ballot:
Kubo & the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Jungle Book
Deepwater Horizon

My Pick to Win:
The Jungle Book

Shamefully Snubbed:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Production Design

Best Production Design:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

A week out from the big night, and I have resigned myself to the fact I will not be able to see all of the nominees. Oh well, I did it last year. I am still planning to see the other two Best Pic nominees I haven't seen, and I'll need to cover the last 14 categories in the next 6 days.  Here goes!

Five very different films each with beautiful, original sets fill the Production design category. I was a little surprised Arrival got as many nominations as it did, but I don't think it has enough love to garner any wins. Beasts is probably the best of the bunch, but it'll probably succumb to what I expect to be a juggernaut of a night for La La Land.

My Ballot:
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
La La Land
Hail, Caesar!
Arrival

My Pick to Win:
La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
Captain Fantastic

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

This category is so hard to predict. Do the voters like minimal makeup with "uglied down" hairstyling (Dallas Buyers Club, Les Miserables), crazy body paint (Mad Max), or face-changing prosthetics (The Wolfman)? Even the nominees are puzzling. For two years in a row, a Swedish team is nominated for ho-hum "old person" makeup. Usually you can just pick the best reviewed, highest box-office movie of the bunch, but that's complicated as well. Suicide Squad was the worst reviewed, but the most seen. Ove was the best reviewed, but nobody (except me of course) has seen it. So I guess I'll split the difference here and say that Star Trek repeats its 2009 victory.

My Ballot:
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
A Man Called Ove

My Pick to Win:
Star Trek Beyond

Shamefully Snubbed:
Florence Foster Jenkins

Best of '16: Sing Street

I think she's an amazing human being, never seen anyone like her. The way she talks and looks. She wears this sunglasses, and when she takes'em off, her eyes... are like the clouds clearing to let pass the moon...... Sometimes I just wanna cry looking at her.

An awkward Irish teenager sees an older "bad" girl, falls in love at first sight, so decides to recruit his classmates to start a band to impress her and win her heart. These are the types of movies that are made for people like me. I'm not a huge fan of the 80s music or aesthetic, but the soul of the film remains timeless. True, unabashed love can be victorious no matter what the odds. I really wish this little gem had received more attention on the awards circuit.

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Sound Mixing

Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Screw this category.....  It should be one of my favorites because it is the category that awards mixing the live recorded sounds during filming. This is THE category of music-centered movies as past winners include Dreamgirls, Whiplash, Slumdog Millionaire, and Les Miserables. My problem centers around the nominators silly love of one Michael Benjamin Bay.... I have suffered through two Transformers movies and now 13 Hours because of this category....  Still, it should be a slam-dunk win for La La Land if just for the scene above. If you've seen the movie, you know what I mean. If you haven't, go see it... tonight...  Happy Valentines!

My Ballot:
La La Land
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

My Pick to Win:
La La Land

Shamefully Snubbed:
Sing Street

Countdown to Oscar Night: Best Sound Editing

Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Sully

...And so it begins....As always, I'll take a look at each category, give a little background, my predictions, and where I think the voters got it wrong. I'm a little behind on where I'd like to be on my movie watching, but I'm acquiring and watching as fast as I can. I'm here to serve!

Sound editing is awarded to the movie with the best added sounds. Usually this category is full of gunfights, robots, and noisy vehicles. This year is no different. The one oddball is La La Land. I'm not really sure how that film is going to do in these technical categories. Musicals usually do well in Sound Mixing, but I don't really know of a single original sound effect that stood out in the Oscar juggernaut. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me at all for La La to sweep.

My Ballot (ranked from best to worst):
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Arrival
La La Land
Sully

My Pick to Win:
Hacksaw Ridge

Shamefully Snubbed:
Swiss Army Man

Best of '16: Other People

-Go, travel the whole world real quick... so you could just see everything.
-I get to see my whole world at dinner tonight.

Molly Shannon plays a mom dealing with terminal cancer. That may not sound like the best premise for a comedy, you may not recognize the director or any other actor, and that title is just about the worst (really... "Other People"... you guys couldn't have done any better than that??) but you'll just have to trust me. Life is scary, life is sad, life is painful, but life is also funny. I feel the best comedies don't pull any of those punches. This movie also points out the importance of the Independent Spirit Awards. I would've never given this movie a second though if it had not been nominated for four Spirit Awards.

Best of '16: Hunt for the Wilderpeople

Me and this fat kid 
We ran we ate and read books 
And it was the best.

Earlier I wrote that Swiss Army Man was the most original film to be released in 2016. I stand by that assertion, but that movie isn't very accessible to the passive film-fan. If you still hunger for originality but aren't quite ready for Paul Dano riding a flatulent Harry Potter like a jetski, this is the movie for you. Set in the beautiful wilderness of New Zealand (I expected a hobbit to pop out at any time), this is the story of a young foster child and his grumpy reluctant guardian as they run from the law in search of freedom. Touching, funny, and exciting, I have no reservations suggesting this movie to pretty much anybody. It's in the redbox right now! Go get it!